We’ve all seen it: a new technology bursts into public view.
humanoids
metaverse
promptengineering
vibecoding
Media coverage explodes. Startups flood the market. Analysts issue bold predictions. Suddenly, a C-level initiative is launched—often with little more than the fear of missing out (FOMO) as justification.
Welcome to the Peak of Inflated Expectations, the most tempting (and dangerous) point on Gartner’s Hype Cycle.
At the Peak, everything feels urgent
New technologies are highly visible at this stage. Everyone’s talking about them—at conferences, in boardrooms, and across LinkedIn. Activity spills beyond early adopters into the mainstream corporate world. It feels like things are moving fast and coming out of nowhere.
That’s when many large corporates make their move.
But here's the reality: the peak doesn't mean much.
❗ Each year, six or more technologies hit the peak of inflated expectations.
❗ Statistically, only 31% of technologies at this stage ever reach mainstream adoption.
❗ And for those that do, it takes 7+ years on average from peak to adoption.
Let that sink in. Most technologies that dominate the news today will never reach the scale or maturity to impact your business meaningfully. And the few that do won’t get there anytime soon.
So, what should corporates do?
The worst move is to go all-in just because others are. The best move is to be deliberate:
➡️ Avoid overinvesting in immature technologies.
➡️ Run multiple small pilots to understand feasibility, not just promise.
➡️ Build internal learning loops, so your teams are ready if (and when) the technology matures.
A diversified portfolio of exploratory initiatives beats a single top-down moonshot—especially at the hype cycle’s peak.
Don't Let the Noise Dictate Strategy
The number of emerging technologies, their high failure rate, and the slow timeline for maturity make it hard to separate signal from noise. But that’s precisely why level-headed strategy matters.
There is no reason to panic just because the mass media is.
The Peak of Inflated Expectations is not the finish line—it’s just a moment. The winners won’t be picked by the loudest headlines, but by thoughtful experimentation, patience, and disciplined capital allocation.
This post was first published on LinkedIN in April 2025
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