Saturday, May 2, 2020

The Four Questions to Ask After a Black Swan Event




A local crisis which started on the Balkans in July 1914 spiralled into a fully fledged world war within a short period of a few weeks .

After a four year impasse on the western front the German Army spectacularly collapsed in in late summer of 1918. What was then called the Great War ended on armistice day November 11, 1918. 

An ETF to Consider if the U.S.-China Trade War Triggers a Black ...
Picture credit: etftrends.com

The German General Staff was dissolved by the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919. Only five months later the General Staff's clandestine successor organization 'Truppenamt' under Hans von Seeckt launched 57 committees to distill the learnings from the Great War.

The output of the committees were short, concise studies which addressed four questions 

  1. What new situations arose that had not been considered before?

  2. How effective were pre-war views in dealing with these situations?

  3. What guidelines were developed for new weaponry during the war?

  4. Which new problems put forward by the war have not yet found a solution?
The T-4 training section of the Truppenamt was given responsibility for collecting and reviewing the work of the 57 committees. 109 officers and former officers were appointed to chair the committees and more than 400 officers were involved the effort . The training section then edited the committee reports for use in army manuals and regulations. 

The Great War was a watershed event which affected everyone's life. 

Which questions will you ask after the next Black Swan event?
 
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Source: James S. Corum, The Roots of Blitzkrieg

Monday, January 27, 2020

Satellites, Biology and Big Machines - My Investment Activities in 2019

I had 17 companies in my portfolio at the beginning of 2019. Consistent with my pace in previous years I made three new investments across a wide spectrum of B2B software spaces: 





  • Geosite is an enterprise SaaS platform for spatial data that leverages the proliferation in satellite imagery sources and distributed sensor systems.
    Founder and CEO Rachel Olney came up with the idea when she studied the impact of the availability of small satellites on the military. Geosite now is on a mission to make geospatial data available to a broad range of businesses.


  • Turbine models the inner mechanisms of cancer to discover novel protein targets and precision biomarkers.
    I was introduced to Szabi and the team via Jens-Philipp Klein from Atlantic Labs in June 2018 and was simply blown away by the team’s vision to radically change drug discovery. 

  • Remberg digitizes asset service processes for manufacturers, service providers and operators.
    Fellow angel investor Manuel Grossmann introduced me to co-founder and CEO David Hahn and the team back in April 2018. David, Hagen, Cecil and Julian quickly navigated through multiple pivots and are now acquiring customers at lightning speed.


Throughout the year I met with hundreds of startups and had in-depth discussions with about a dozen. Finding the right market and building a true MVP often takes longer than the founders are anticipating, and being able to distinctly describe the use case - buyer, user, value proposition and ROI - is as challenging as ever. The majority of interesting companies are bringing software to new industries and new buying centers, although I also met a few interesting founders who have invented a better mousetrap (Zoom, anyone?).

I worked with many of the more recent investments and helped in positioning, fundraising, hiring, mentoring, GTM, and intros to my network.

Fewer companies than expected from my portfolio raised additional funding: Assuming that there should be a funding event every 18 months, I could have expected up to eight raises in 2019. Yet only three of my existing portfolio companies raised and I was invited to participate in two of these. Decisionnext raised a Series A, and two other companies raised bridge extensions at significantly higher valuations. There were no markdowns in my portfolio. 

On the downside: Employeechannel (formerly known as Navera formerly known as Trustnode) called it quits eight years after founding and multiple funding rounds. 

My resolutions for 2020: Keep investing and find teams and companies that address previously unexplored spaces and have the potential to own a category. 

Image sources: wikipedia, NIH, hydraulicpress.com

Saturday, January 11, 2020

2019 Was A Breakout Year For B2B SaaS Startups in Germany



The BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index (EMCLOUD) tracks 48 SaaS companies. Some are industry stalwarts such as Adobe, others are recently IPO’d companies such as Slack and Zoom. The EMCLOUD index rose 47% in 2019 and far outperformed any other indices including the tech heavy NASDAQ. 


 

There was not a single public B2B SaaS company in Germany as of 2018 . (Wirecard is publicly traded but does not have the subscription business model typically associated with SaaS). This embarrassing situation finally changed when Teamviewer went public in September 2019 at a share price of €25.30 and ended the year at €31.88, an increase of 26%. Teamviewer was founded in 2005 and is a leader for remote access and desktop sharing are in the transition from an on premise to a SaaS model. Teamviewer’s expected 2019 revenues are approximately €400 million and the end of year market capitalization stands at €6 billion.

The next largest relevant exit in the B2B space was Data Artisans’ sale to Alibaba for $90 million.

If the list of publicly traded B2B SaaS companies is limited to one, what about the pipeline of privately held B2B SaaS companies? As of 2018 only two things would have stood out: Celonis became a SaaS unicorn, and IoT company Relayr exited for 300 million. After that - nothing. Nada. Nimic. Rien. Nichts.
 
Privately held Celonis continues to grow on a global scale and the latest round now values Celonis as a ‘duocorn’ worth more than €2 billion. The company has strengthened its executive ranks to complement the three person founder team in the quest to get IPO ready. There are no other private B2B SaaS unicorns, and there is no other SaaS company that is valued higher than €500 million at the time of writing. 

2019 saw a flood of funding pour into the most promising B2B startups, and the largest SaaS players cumulatively raised $900 million in just their last funding rounds (It is worth noting that some of these investments were spent on secondaries and the money going into the companies was less than the amounts listed below and communicated to the public). 




Five companies appear to be valued as high or higher than Relayr at their $300 million exit in 2018: 

  • Personio provides an HR suite for SMBs and vaulted ahead to a  $300+ million valuation after a large €60 million round in December 2019 after a prior round just in January.
  • Signavio is a global leader in business process management, also raised a large round, although much of it was a secondary sale by the existing shareholders and only a smaller amount went into funding the growth of the company. The founders still own a very significant share of the company.
  • Sennder also raised two large rounds in July and April of 2019.
  • Scoutbee has been on an absolute tear since its founding in 2015 and has closed a large round in December after a prior raise only six months earlier. What first looked like a Web 1.0 era supplier listing tool on steroids is quickly evolving into a strategic sourcing vendor.
  • Commercetools had been flying under the radar since its acquisition by REWE 2015, but Insight Partners saw an opportunity to acquire the company from REWE. It does not appear that any money went directly into funding further growth right now.

The list of highest valued B2B SaaS companies is rounded out by Proglove, PowerCloud, Contentful, Wundermobility, and KONUX which are currently valued between $300 million and $200 million (the SaaS list excludes Auto1 who buy and sell actual cars and Adjust whose revenue model is based on transactions as opposed to subscriptions). 

2019 was a ‘golden’ year for startups in Germany to raise growth capital. The five largest B2C players (Flixbus, GetYourGuide, Frontier Car Group, N26  and SumUp) collectively raised €1952 million where each investment was larger than the $290 million raised by Celonis.

Marquee investors will provide the ammunition for Series B and beyond if they believe that these companies can become global category leaders with a clear path to exit: Accel is an investor in both Celonis and Personio. Insight Partners invested in Staffbase in addition to Commercetools and Lean IX. 

And there is an abundance of seed and series A capital available from German venture capital firms to fuel the fire.


Image credit: investing.com


Rocks Ahead For Cloud Companies in 2020?

2019 was another stellar year for the overall stock market (DJII ending at 28,462 up 22% from 23,328), even better for technology stocks (NASDAQ ending 8,946 up 35% from 6,635), and best for emerging cloud software and services companies (BVP/Nasdaq emerging cloud EMCLOUD ending at 1205.4 up 47% from 823.4). 



So there are ample reasons for cloud software companies to be happy. But was the wealth evenly spread? 

The first half of 2019 saw more than half a dozen IPOs in B2B SaaS: Medallia, Cloudflare, Dynatrace, Slack, Fastly, Zoom and Pagerduty all performed well immediately after their IPO.  However, the stock price of most of these companies stock prices performed far worse than any index by year end. The unweighted average share prices declined 15% between IPO and the end of 2019, and five out of seven were trading below IPO. 


Company
Share price EoY compared to IPO
Percent
Market cap $ million, EoY
Cloudflare
  -5%
  $5.2
Dynatrace
   6%
  $7.4
Medallia
-16%
  $3.8
Slack
-42%
$12.4
Fastly
-16%
  $2.0
Zoom
 10%
$18.6
Pagerduty
-39%
  $1.9

WeWork’s implosion in October effectively closed the IPO window for everyone else for the remainder of the year. Bill.com was the only company to squeeze their IPO in before the very end of 2019. 

While the IPO market took a break large enterprise SaaS companies continued to consolidate via acquisitions. The software analytics space in particular went through a generational wave of acquisitions reminiscent of the first round of M&A in 2005/2006. This time the buyers were Salesforce (Tableau), Workday (Adaptive Insight) and Google Cloud (Looker) instead of SAP, IBM and Oracle. 

Hyperscalers Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and AliCloud have still largely been absent from making huge acquisitions. The growth and size of the hyperscalers far exceeds that of most other software companies, and their firepower will eventually be deployed towards more acquisitions higher up the software stack. Google Cloud’s acquisition of Looker may be the first indicator.

Clearly, there is enough money in the venture capital ecosystem to fund every startup that is worthy.The abundance of capital has trickled down from the large growth fund such as Softbank Vision to seed funds where seed round sizes have tripled since 2012. But the Softbank/WeWork writeoff has demonstrated that large funds are struggling to achieve their target returns. The Softbank Vision Fund has reportedly dialed back on its investment strategy of supersized rounds, and several of their portfolio companies have gone into restructuring mode. 

Are all of these events indicators of more down rounds to come?



Image credit: renemagritte.org


Monday, March 18, 2019

Why Every Startup Should Create Its Own New Category

Category leaders capture the majority of the available profit pool, and investors seek to find future category leaders. Peter Thiel’s ‘Zero to One’ book is about how to build companies that create new things and eventually become a monopoly. Investors also look for new categories because it is virtually impossible for a startup to unseat a current category leader.

But how to create a new category?


Founders should look for a net new problem and they should devise a net new solution. The only way to find this new problem is by talking to customers.

Category creation requires developing a concept and planting a story in people's brains. Customers may not understand that they have a problem and therefore may not have a budget. A new point of view replaces the current customer point of view. And customers may be puzzled because they haven't thought about it. In fact, there may not be any easily identifiable customers and the ultimate act of category creation results in a new role in a company. Box's Aaron Levy said 'you need to find a demographic and a customer that no other software company is paying attention to in a modern way, and your job is to make them be heroes.'  

The solution has to be not only better, but different and unique. Being different comes from proprietary insight and can be based on technology differentiation, network effects, or a structural competitive advantage. Peter Thiel asks founders one key question: ‘What important truth do very few people agree with you on?’

The existence of a band aided solution at the customer is a good sign that there is a category waiting to be productized. And a sufficiently large number of these cases is evidence that now is the perfect time for the category to be created.

Talking to existing channels is unlikely to generate new insights since they serve current solutions and address known problems and customers.Advisory firms such as Gartner and others will only validate new software categories when a category has become large enough for their own customers and competitors are emerging.

Qualtrics realized that their customers started to tweak the software and use it as a customer experience and employee experience solution; the original market research use case dropped to the third rank. CMO Kylan Lundeen said 'We realized we were not in the survey business, we were in the business of helping people manage the experience they provide to their most important stakeholders.' Qualtrics was acquired for $8 billion by SAP in 2018.

The best categories have no or few competitors. There is little noise and there are no preexisting notions and once a new category has been identified the work only starts. The new category needs to be positioned and an ecosystem around it has to be created. The message needs to be authentic at scale for the users and customers to evangelize it. Leadership of this movement has to extend beyond the company and include the competition.

Peter Thiel has said ‘... the single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people find value in unexpected places, and they do this by thinking about business from first principles instead of formulas’.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

2018 in Review - Category Kings Rule


A new year’s beginning is the customary yet arbitrary time to review last year’s market movements and portfolio developments. The main theme for decacorns, unicorns, and my own portfolio companies was category leadership; .

The undiminished power of that leadership in SaaS was again on display when Qualtrics decided to sell itself for $8 billion to SAP. Shopify, Veeva and Twilio are examples of these category leaders that have already reached or surpassed $10+ billion valuations and continue to go strong.



Picture credit: Forbes


Public markets and private tech startups

The longest bull market in history may be coming to an end. The DJII started at 25,461.70 and finished the year 5.8% lower at 23327.46 points; the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.6%. Cloud software stocks were still doing well though and massively outperformed the overall stock market where the Bessemer Nasdaq Emerging Cloud index rose by 37% from 621 to 851.

It pays to be a thunder lizard and create a new category. The plethora of tech IPOs continued and was led by some notable SaaS leaders such as Anaplan, Elastic, Docusign, Eventbrite, Pivotal, Zuora, and Dropbox. Even Domo made it out in time, although they raised a ton of red flags when they announced that they would have to IPO or go through a major restructuring.

SurveyMonkey debuted on September 26 and is trading at a market cap of $1.4 billion at the time of writing. Their IPO was soon  overshadowed by SAP’s announced $8 billion acquisition of Qualtrics on November 11. Also worthwhile mentioning is Plangrid’s $875 million sale to Autodesk. Plangrid was first introduced to the public at the Y Combinator day in March 2012 and raised a Series A not until 2015. I saw the team at the demo day and liked them, but did not pursue an investment in this vertical SaaS startup that set out to revolutionize workflows on construction sites.

Relayr was the only notable SaaS exit in Germany. Getting to a $300 million exit in five years is great by any measure, and growing into a full fledged unicorn in the IIoT space would have required a lot more capital to expand more aggressively and internationally.

Venture capital continued to flow freely according to PwC’s Q3 Moneytree report.  Late stage unicorn funding rounds drove up dollars invested in the U.S., but deal activity declined for the first time since Q4’17. In addition, seed-stage deals continued to decline, and early stage deals only increased very slightly and for the first time since Q4’17. The U.S. median seed stage deals cost $1.5m, down from the previous quarters but still very high based on historical figures. Historically, all these are signs that the funding market is a the end of the cycle.

Total investments in startups in Germany increased by 7% to reach 4.6 billion Euros, and the number of financing rounds increased by 21% to reach 615. European startups raised a median $1.2 million in Q3 for seed stage deals, less than in the U.S., but the money lasts a lot longer when taking into account the lower salaries compared to Silicon Valley.

The year started with Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) being all the rage, but the SEC quickly cooled buyer interest in the U.S. and subpoenaed 80 cryptocurrency firms in April. Global activity seemed to come to a complete halt shortly thereafter, tet Andreessen, USV and others invested $12 million in the inventors of the Cryptokiddies in March. Steem.it announced it had to lay off 70% of its employees in late November, and one of the more interesting experiments clearly is in deep trouble.


My portfolio

2018 began with 17 active investments and the value of the portfolio rose significantly due to the follow-on rounds in Wandelbots and in Kreatize.

There were 13 transactions in total: Two exits, two warrant deals, three bridges, three follow-on equity financings, and three new deals.
  • Exits: Practice Fusion sold to Allscripts for $100 million in cash and Savvy was sold to Global English
  • Follow-on financings: Truevault raised a venture venture round in August. Wandelbots continued to receive strong customer interest and raised €6 million from Paua Ventures and EQT in December. Kreatize changed their business model to provide a turnkey service for the sourcing of custom made parts and have been on a tear since January 2018. I participated in a bridge round in May, and in December they raised €5.5 million from Earlybird VC.

New investments

Some of my 2017 resolutions were continue to look for differentiated opportunities in enterprise SW in Europe - and in Germany in particular- , bet on contrarian outliers in Silicon Valley, and dive deeper into Blockchain and tokens. I did end up investing in two Germany based companies and in one enterprise SaaS company located in San Francisco.

  • The AIPark team led by Julian and Johannes provides predictive parking information just based on data and without owning sensors.  Traditional parking is evolving as cities, drivers, and other stakeholders will need to rethink the curb as ride sharing services proliferate and self driving cars appear on the horizon. I helped the team sharpen their pitch and made introductions to VCs. As in most of my investments, I was the first money in, together with Atlantic Labs, Jens Lapinski and other angel investors. 
  • I first talked Jan-Philipp from Hashplay in late 2017.They are building an AI powered business intelligence platform to translate operational data into digital twins and are garnering great interest from multiple verticals in a space which Gartner terms immersive analytics. The team is based in Hamburg and in San Francisco, with development resources in East Asia. 
  • I got to know Oomnitza’s CEO Arthur when he raised an initial seed round in 2014. Oomnitza builds a connected, automated, and visualized Thing Management that tracks everything that makes a business run.  I was more than happy to join the bridge round in December.
I also deeply looked into two startups that planned to use tokens as an incentive mechanism for their respective market places. But the ICO market collapsed, and the collateral damage is that most token markets will likely remain frozen for a while. My other activities were concentrated on coaching and mentoring and helping fundraise some of my existing investments, and growing the deal pipeline of B2B SaaS startups  in Germany.


Observations and pontifications

The tech sector is continuing to go through seminal changes at every level of the tech stack and in every aspect of the business model.

  • The Iaas market is growing in excess of 35% CAGR. Enterprises are finally moving their production environments to the cloud and to the multiple cloud providers. AWS and Azure are in the lead, with Google Cloud investing heavily to differentiate via AI and AliCloud staking their claim in China. These hyperscalers will to continue to move up the stack via acquisitions to better serve the needs of large enterprise customers and achieve customer lock-in.  
  • Kubernetes fundamentally changes how complex SW is being developed. Again Google has disrupted the market with open sourcing their SW, and as a result, startups in the ecosystem are in the crosshairs of these hyperscalers. Heptio and CoreOs have already been acquired, and Docker and Mesosphere are going through massive changes to reposition themselves in this environment. 
  • AI has matured from algorithms to the life cycle management of training models. But data and models are customer specific, and scaling these solutions creates challenges far more complex than for bread-and-butter SaaS solutions. In turn, this will lead to more activities in automating data labeling, model scaling and other areas which are not addressed by Tensorflow and other AI libraries.
  • Tokens hold great promise in removing friction in marketplaces, and provide incentives for buyers and sellers. The market for security tokens crashed completely in 2018 and all tokens seem to be in the phase that Gartner calls the ‘trough of disillusionment’.
  • IIoT customers understand the value delivered by SaaS ‘products’, but they are still expecting a full solution. On top of that, larger buyers in that segment are not yet used to paying recurring revenues. Industrial IoT (IIoT) startups need to be super disciplined about the engagement cycle from first contact to demo/proof of concept and then to pilot and to recurring revenue. Relimetrics and Amper have templated this approach and are preparing to reach escape velocity.


2019 outlook

Dark clouds? R.I.P. Good times? It pays to be prepared, although the VC guns are still loaded and there is plenty of money to go around.

The probability of a downturn becomes more imminent the longer the bull market continues. GM’s announcement of a significant streamlining of their operations notably implied an expected economic slowdown in 2019.

The time to get back into investing in Silicon Valley startups will be when seed stage and bridge valuations become more reasonable. In the meantime, lower valuations and great technical talent can be found in continental Europe. Celonis and Signavio are already category leaders in their respective segments, and Kreatize, Relimetrics and Wandelbots in my own portfolio hold great promise.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

The importance of the Relayr exit for IIoT startups, and for startups in Germany


The Industrial IoT (IIoT) startup Relayr recently sold for a reported $300 million. While it is not a unicorn type exit with a billion Euro valuation, it is a very significant exit for a startup in the IIoT space and for a startup based in Germany.




The importance for IIoT

Germany is a great place for an IIoT startup to engage with industrial customers: There are about 2000 so called Hidden Champions in Germany, and most are located in the south of the country. These ‘hidden champions’ are global players, and startups serving these customers should expect to scale globally very quickly.

Relayr has had to develop four basic approaches in order to scale:


1. Make sure that there is a business outcome and the vertical market understands the value proposition


Relayr’s core products is a horizontal solution, a middleware in the cloud which acts a data broker. They started with a horizontal go-to-market approach, but that value proposition turned out to be too complex to communicate, and the customers did not have the  know-how to connect Operational Technology (OT) and IT.

Relayr then focused on use cases in a four specific verticals - manufacturing, energy, transportation, and retail - and developed prepackaged products for each use case and vertical.

The business outcomes of the use cases were either opex minimization or creating new revenue streams. Predictive maintenance is such a business outcome that results in opex minimization.

2. Know your buying center

Selling IIoT requires executive sponsorship, in particular when wanting to change business outcomes. CIOs typically cannot change these outcomes, and Relayr ends up selling to the CEO as the buying center. At the CEO level, they try to position themselves as one of the key providers vis-a-vis competitors such as Cisco and GE.



3. Make sure that your product connects well with the surrounding ecosystem

Industrial environments require high quality systems and the ability to exchange data with others. In addition, most environments are hybrid on premise and cloud deployments, and the product architecture needs to be designed with that in mind.

Relayr offers six prepackaged products with OEM partners based on the Relayr routing gateways. The gateway has an open ecosystem with other vendors for hardware, software, security and connectivity.

4. Have a structured GTM approach with clearly defined deliverables

Relayr receives many leads from partners, but the customer requests tend to be very unspecific. In response, they have built structured and templated roll-out process for their GTM and devised the following ‘5-4-3’ schema:


  • Firstly, a five day discovery session to identify the low hanging fruit impact use cases. This compresses the consulting sales cycle from months to one week.


  • Secondly, a four week prototyping phase


  • Thirdly, a three month roll-out plan. Some of these roll outs were global from day one and required zero touch deployments.

The Relayr business model is to drive services revenues for enablement until SaaS revenues kicks in. The services revenues are a means to an end and cost neutral. The SaaS pricing started by charging per device per year for small projects, but Relayr quickly realized that this pricing metric was unrelated to a business outcome. Their goal is to grow strategically with a customer, and hence churn tends to be low.

The SaaS sales cycle depends on the complexity of the sale. For a single machine the cycle is six months; for others that are more complex up to one year but in both cases, the key is to provide the customer with a clearly defined environment. In addition, they are offering insurance of a business outcome as a unique selling point, e.g. a performance outcome from energy management. Guaranteeing this business outcome helps accelerate the sales cycle.

A complex environment requires sales discipline. Junior sales people did not work out for Relayr. Instead, Relayr went through engagements with consulting companies such as McKinsey , EY, and Accenture to establish credibility. In addition, the open platform for developers provided a sandbox environment which resulted in 50% of projects being industry initiated.

The importance of the exit

Getting to a $300 million valuation in five years is a great outcome by any startup measure. Given where the company revenue generation after five years and given the complexity of the IIoT space, growing into a fully fledged unicorn valuation would have likely been difficult. It would have required taking on more capital - likely from large international investors -, and expanding more aggressively internationally.

Relayr raised $66.8 million in six rounds from the likes of KPCB,  Munich Re, Deutsche Telekom and others. CEO Josef Brunner has stated that they were intentionally looking for US investor early on to push their thinking and for the brand when approaching customers and indeed, KPCB is one of few US VCs who have invested in a European startup early on.

Founders and early stage investors likely had a nice exit, but it was not a fund returning exit for KPCB, and it is unlikely that Deutsche Telekom made a lot of money after their last investment just a few months prior to the sale.

The buyer Munich Re/HBS is an insurance company that is using IIoT to offer risk services. A sign for more IIoT acquisitions to come from competing insurance providers?

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Further reading (in German):