The Four Questions to Ask After a Black Swan Event

A local crisis which started on the Balkans in July 1914 spiralled into a fully fledged world war within a short period of a few weeks .

After a four year impasse on the western front the German Army spectacularly collapsed in in late summer of 1918. What was then called the Great War ended on armistice day November 11, 1918. 

Picture credit: etftrends.com

The German General Staff was dissolved by the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919. Only five months later the General Staff's clandestine successor organization 'Truppenamt' under Hans von Seeckt launched 57 committees to distill the learnings from the Great War.

The output of the committees were short, concise studies which addressed four questions 

1. What new situations arose that had not been considered before?
   
   
2. How effective were pre-war views in dealing with these situations?
   
   
3. What guidelines were developed for new weaponry during the war?
   
   
4. Which new problems put forward by the war have not yet found a solution?
   

The T-4 training section of the Truppenamt was given responsibility for collecting and reviewing the work of the 57 committees. 109 officers and former officers were appointed to chair the committees and more than 400 officers were involved the effort . The training section then edited the committee reports for use in army manuals and regulations. 

The Great War was a watershed event which affected everyone's life. 

Which questions will you ask after the next Black Swan event?

 

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Source: James S. Corum, The Roots of Blitzkrieg